Bitcoin is trading around $109,000, holding in what analysts at QCP Capital call a “narrow-range equilibrium” ahead of Friday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release — one of the few data points unaffected by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.
QCP described the CPI as a “singular anchor” for policy expectations, with a soft 0.2% increase potentially boosting risk assets and improving liquidity sentiment. Until then, markets remain frozen in place, caught between cautious optimism and profit-taking.
Bitcoin has drifted lower since hitting a record high above $126,000 on Oct. 6, shedding momentum as traders digest mixed macro signals.
“The bull run is over,” warned John Glover per Yahoo Finance, who believes the market has entered a bear phase that could extend into late 2026. Glover expects prices to retrace toward $70,000–$80,000, though he acknowledged short-term rebounds toward $124,000 remain possible.
Bitcoin price not in full-blown bear market
Others see the move as a healthy reset. VanEck’s ChainCheck report called the pullback a “liquidity-driven mid-cycle adjustment,” not a full-blown bear market. The firm pointed to normalized leverage, steady on-chain activity, and Bitcoin’s growing role as a hedge against fiat debasement.
Analysts Matthew Sigel and Nathan Frankovitz noted that global liquidity — measured through M2 money supply — still explains more than half of Bitcoin’s price movements, underscoring its macro sensitivity.
Asian trading hours have increasingly dictated global trends, VanEck said, linking the October drawdown to tightening liquidity in Asia as central banks defend their currencies.
Futures open interest has fallen from an overheated $52 billion peak to normalized levels, clearing speculative excess and setting up potential re-entry points.
Still, Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick remains bullish. He expects a dip below $100,000 “inevitable” in the short term — but views it as a buying opportunity, maintaining his $200,000 year-end target and a long-term forecast of $500,000 by 2028.
ETF flows reinforce the uncertainty. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $101 million in outflows Wednesday, with Ethereum ETFs losing another $19 million, signaling cooling institutional appetite.
But just yesterday, T. Rowe Price, one of the largest U.S. asset management firms, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a cryptocurrency-focused ETF.
The proposed ETF will track the ten largest U.S.-listed cryptocurrencies by market capitalization that meet SEC listing standards.
