Here’s BTC’s Most Likely Path This Week

After Bitcoin’s decisive breakdown from a multi-month rising channel, the largest crypto is still under immense pressure. While buyers managed to defend the $60K support region and trigger a short-term rebound, the broader structure still favors the sellers unless BTC can reclaim several important resistance levels overhead.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, BTC recently confirmed a bearish breakdown below a large ascending channel, accelerating selling pressure and pushing the asset toward the major support zone around $60K, where buyers stepped in and halted the downtrend.

The selloff also drove Bitcoin well below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. These MAs are currently positioned around $72K and $76K, respectively. The loss of the 100-day moving average, which was supposed to act as a dynamic support level, signals a significant deterioration in the broader market structure and suggests that sellers continue to control the trend.

Following the sharp decline, BTC found demand near $60K and staged a modest recovery toward the $64K region. However, the rebound remains relatively weak compared to the magnitude of the preceding drop.

The first major resistance now sits between $65K and $68K, where a previous support area has turned into supply. Above that, the more critical resistance zone is located around $72K to $75K, which coincides with the 100-day moving average and the lower boundary of the broken ascending channel. A successful reclaim of this area would be the first indication that the recent breakdown may have been a bear trap.

On the downside, the $60K region remains the most important support level. Losing this zone could expose Bitcoin to a deeper correction toward lower liquidity clusters and potentially trigger another wave of capitulation.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour timeframe provides a clearer view of the recent breakdown and subsequent consolidation phase. After losing the $72K to $74K support zone, BTC experienced an aggressive selloff toward the $60K demand area. Since then, the price has formed a short-term ascending channel, indicating a corrective recovery rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

However, the recent rejection from the upper boundary of this channel and the subsequent breakdown suggest that bullish momentum remains limited. Although BTC managed to stabilize and reclaim the mid-$64K area, it continues to trade beneath the key resistance block between $65K and $68K.

As long as the price remains below this supply zone, the current rebound appears corrective in nature. A successful breakout above $68K could open the door for a move toward the larger resistance cluster at $72K to $74K. Conversely, another rejection from current levels would increase the probability of a retest of the $60K support zone.

The RSI on the 4-hour chart has recovered into neutral territory, reflecting improving short-term momentum. However, it has not yet entered strongly bullish conditions, which supports the view that the ongoing move remains a relief rally within a broader bearish structure.

Sentiment Analysis

The funding rate chart offers an important insight into current derivatives positioning. Funding rates remained predominantly negative throughout much of the recent decline, indicating that short positions dominated the market during the selloff. This persistent negative funding reflected bearish sentiment and aggressive short exposure as BTC traded lower.

More recently, funding rates have shifted back into positive territory, currently hovering around 0.004. This transition suggests that market participants are gradually rebuilding long exposure following the bounce from the $60K support area.

From a contrarian perspective, the normalization of funding after an extended period of negative readings can be viewed as a constructive development. The market has already undergone a substantial deleveraging event, and the recovery in funding suggests improving confidence among futures traders.

However, the current funding levels remain far below the overheated conditions seen during previous bullish phases. This indicates that while sentiment is improving, leverage remains relatively contained and does not yet confirm the beginning of a sustained uptrend.

Overall, the derivatives data suggest that bearish pressure has eased following the recent liquidation event, but Bitcoin still needs to reclaim the $68K and $72K-$74K resistance zones before a broader bullish recovery can be confirmed. Until then, the rebound from $60K appears more consistent with a relief rally within a weakened market structure.